World: IGC forecast the world barley production at 135.2 million tonnes for 2005/2006

The world production estimate of IGC is down 1.5 million tonnes compared to the last forecast to 135.2 million tonnes for season 2005/2006, with reduced figures for Canada, the US and Australia, IGC published on October 27. On November 10 USDA has published its forecast of world barley trade for 2005/2006 at 133,461,000 tonnes.

World barley consumption is forecast by IGC at 140.8 million tonnes, unchanged from last month. Lower feed use, due to competition from other grains, has led to a fall of 5% in total barley use from 2004/05.

World barley trade is forecast at 17.2 million tonnes, 0.3 million tonnes up from last month but virtually unchanged from 2004/05.

Continued strong malting barley demand by China and Russia and higher feed needs by North Africa should offset reduced shipments to Near East Asia. The export forecast for Ukraine has been lifted by 0.2 million tonnes, to 3.7 million tonnes after robust July-September shipments of over 1.2 million tonnes. Global end-season stocks are projected at 22 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes less than forecast in September and 5 million tonnes down from last year.

IGC estimates the world demand to be 17.4 million tonnes, which is probably too low, analysts said, as traders in importing countries give higher figures than the IGC: “Near East Asia 9.4 million tonnes, North Africa 1.4 million tonnes”. The Australian barley exports may exceed the IGC’s figure of 5.1 million tonnes s by at least 1 million tonnes.

IGC has published as well the main market events since 29 September 2005:
On September 29 Turkey sold 85,000 tonnes of feed barley (on 21 Oct also 50,000 tonnes of feed barley).
On October 13 Jordan bought 100,000 tonnes feed barley

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